Thursday, October 21, 2010

Poll Position: This Could Get Messy

The college football season is crossing its halfway point, heading into the end of October and starting to sift out the contenders from the pretenders in conference championship and National Championship races....

Or so we think.

The illogical madness that is the BCS Standings released their first rankings this past weekend, causing a mini uproar among teams not named Oklahoma. This is understandable, but completely irrational.

If college football fans have learned anything over the past...century, it's that the post-season and final polls are not even close to being settled until the first weekend in December. Not too long ago, in 2007, we had numerous number 1's and 2's knocked off throughout the season, squeezing a 2 LOSS team into the National Championship Game. 

As of now, we have 10 unbeatens in the college football world, a fairly high number for this time of year. Of those 10 unbeatens, six of them could legitimately run the table by season's end. How can we trust the BCS to possibly sort out who the top two teams are? The human poll that is taken into consideration, the Coaches Poll, is ran by people who are a little preoccupied with their jobs as coaches rather than trying to sort out who is actually playing the best football. They may have slight insight to those in their conference, but I would imagine the majority of them look at final scores at the end of the night (or the next morning) rather than analyzing the teams in detail.

Then, the computer rankings. I forgot how big of fans computers were...

I get why there is such a formula, to try and weed out bias from the human polls and use a more "scientific" approach, such as strength of schedule and quality wins. But do we really need a computer to calculate all that? Shouldn't we trust humans to take all that into consideration? As the past has shown, we definitely cannot.

A solution to this mess is needed, and better sooner than later. With ESPN taking a hold of the reigns of the BCS, they have the power to influence the major brains behind college football into changing the way the post-season is done.

First off, let's abolish the coaches poll. It's a joke; and while no one knows the game better than the coaches, they are not well equipped to help pick out our national champion.

Instead, there needs to be a committee of sorts, made up of "experts" around the country. Make sure there are equal members from the various regions in the country (West Coast, Midwest, Southeast, East Coast, etc.) and have them study the games religiously each Saturday. Then, on Sunday, have them meet in a room and discuss the previous days events and rank the teams accordingly. Sort of like the RPI in college basketball.

There can still be formulas to help determine strength of schedules and quality wins and what not, but that should be used as more of a guideline than a set in stone portion of the equation.

As for determining the actual National Champion, I am going to Mark Zuckerberg an idea I saw on CollegeFootballNews.com a few years back.

At the end of the season, conference title games and all, use the rankings compiled by the college football gurus to create the top eight teams, and have an 8 team play-off. This would not only be the most fair way to find out who the cream of the crop is across America, but it would be the most exciting post season in all of sports (sorry college basketball).

The top seed would play the number eight seed, number two versus number seven, etc. 

Originally I would have made it so the six automatic qualifying conference champions were guaranteed a spot in the post season, but honestly who wants to see the 8-4 winner of the ACC get blown up in the first round. Let's get the best of the bunch involved.

Last year, the first round of the College Football Playoffs would have looked like this

1. Alabama vs. 8. Ohio State (@ New Orleans)
4. TCU vs. 5. Florida (@ Miami)
3. Cincinnati vs. 6. Boise State (@ Phoenix)
2. Texas vs. 7. Oregon (@ Pasadena)

How sweet would that have been?!

The playoffs would go on as such, being played on neutral sites at current BCS game stadiums. The regular bowls would continue as well, meaning your ever-so-popular New Orleans bowl would keep its sanctity.

This season, assuming everything goes as planned the rest of the way (which it obviously will not), an end of the year play-off could look something like this:

1. Oklahoma vs. 8. Ohio State (@ Phoenix)
4. Auburn vs. 5. TCU (@ Miami)
3. Boise State vs. 6. Michigan State (@ New Orleans)
2. Oregon vs. 7. Alabama (@ Pasadena)

Fans around the country would love to see that high powered Oregon offense go against an SEC defense. Boise State fans would love to see their team go against some big boys and try to silence their critics. So much more good than bad would be done if a play-off were implemented.

I really hope the college football world will open its eyes (and its wallets) and realize that some form of a play-off would not only be beneficial to finding a real National Champion, but it would generate even more buzz in an already popular season finale.

Monday, October 18, 2010

Oregon State vs. Washington: Notes and Thoughts

In an emotional game in Seattle, the Oregon State Beavers fell short of a great comeback against the Washington Huskies, losing 35-34 in double overtime. After surrendering the first three touchdowns, the Beavers put 21 points on the board as the end of regulation ended in a tie. Husky wide receiver Jermaine Kearse caught two touchdowns in extra play, and at the end of the second over time, Oregon State gambled to go for two instead of sending the game into a third over time.

- This game was one of the more gut wrenching losses in recent memory. The "what-ifs" certainly will pester Beaver fans throughout the next couple weeks until the next game. From showing resiliency after falling down by 21 points early in the game, to nearly ending the game in double overtime, the hurt will linger for a while. 3-3 is not as attractive as 4-2, but a Pac-10 loss on the road is not the end of the world.

- Offensively, the Beavers were pretty sporadic without James Rodgers in the lineup. After a couple missed opportunities down field, as well as some dropped passes early on, the lack of James was obviously hurting. Where Markus Wheaton and Joe Halahuni were making plays the prior week, there just wasn't the same edge or execution this time around.

- Ryan Katz finally had his "gravity" game, coming back to earth after an outstanding performance against Arizona. His three interceptions were all costly in their own regard, one of which was in the red zone, another thrown into double coverage. It would be insane to think he could've kept his mistake-free football going all season, and it seemed once the play book opened a little bit with receivers running more routes designed to catch and go, the timing was off a bit.

- Jacquizz relished in the opportunity to carry the team, and he got his fair share of carries, going for over 140 yards. Time and time again, he was hit near the line of scrimmage yet was able to scrape together extra yardage. His ability to read blocks and change direction on a dime are still baffling defenders in his third season, a testament to his hard work.

- The defense was atrocious early, but after spotting the Huskies three touchdowns, the group buckled down. Washington didn't see the end zone again until overtime, and was horrible at converting on 3rd down. A lot of their failures were due to poor execution, but the OSU defense kept the pressure on Jake Locker for the most part, forcing some errant throws.

- While Beaver fans feel the team probably should have won the game, starting out 2-1 in conference play shouldn't bother anyone. This is a very strong Pac-10 from top to bottom, and every game will be a battle from here on out, especially away from home.  

OSU has a bye next week to heal up and get ready for a visit from Cal, who is reeling after getting the doors blown off by USC on Saturday.

Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Pac-12 Alignment: Pro's, Con's, Possibilities

With the Pac-10/Pac-12 getting closer and closer to reaching an agreement with alignment and revenue, an abundance of speculation is seeping its way to the inter-webs. It sounds like the conference is going to go into a North/South split as opposed to a "Zipper" model that would divide the six natural rivalries in separate divisions. The only question remains is where Stanford and California will end up: in the North with the Northwest schools, or in the South with the L.A. and Arizona schools.

Here is what the divisions would look like with all the California schools together, we'll call this Plan A:

North
Colorado
Oregon
Oregon State
Utah
Washington
Washington State

South
Arizona
Arizona State
California
Stanford
UCLA
USC

Geographically, this makes slightly more sense. The Bay Area is further south than Utah/Colorado by a slight margin, and this is what the California schools are pushing for. However, the Oregon and Washington schools would like to have the California schools in their division, ensuring trips to the state on a yearly basis.

From a competition standpoint, having Utah and Colorado in the North division is pretty appealing. Utah has enjoyed plenty of success over the past decade, going to two BCS games as an at large team in the last six seasons. Colorado has struggled as of late, but they are not too far removed from being kings of the Big 12's North division, where they made frequent appearances in the title game earlier in the decade.

Having Stanford and California in the North would give the conference this look, Plan B:



North

California
Oregon
Oregon State
Stanford
Washington
Washington State

South
Arizona
Arizona State
Colorado
UCLA
USC
Utah

At first glance, this seems like the more attractive option to the North, especially with the resurgence of Stanford under coach Harbaugh. But the program hasn't necessarily proved it has staying power over the years, and California seems to put together poor seasons when the expectations are high, and have surprising ones when people jump back off the bandwagon.

Being a fan from the Northwest, I would personally prefer to see the North snag Utah and Colorado. Let the California schools stay together, where they can beat up on each other year in and year out. I also don't think it's fair to put the two newcomers together with the L.A. schools, which would help their recruiting causes with frequent exposure in the Los Angeles market. I also like the potential of Utah as a real threat to the Oregon schools for "North supremacy" and Colorado to find a decent coach to get that program back on the upswing. Not to mention, the idea of traveling to Salt Lake and Denver, which have a fair amount of high school football talent as well, is very enticing.

Whatever decision is made, the competition in each division will be stiff to say the least. I don't foresee a South dominance like what has happened in the Big 12 over time, and I also don't see an unbeatable monster in each division as well. The Pac-12 will only enhance an already fun and competitive conference, and next school year cannot come fast enough.

Monday, October 11, 2010

Oregon State vs. Arizona: Notes and Thoughts

Oregon State squeaked out another close one against an Arizona school, this time in Tuscon knocking off the 9th ranked Wildcats, 29-27. Ryan Katz threw for nearly 400 yards, resulting in 100-yard receiving efforts by Markus Wheaton and James Rodgers. This is the Beavers first 2-0 start in conference play since 2003.


- The loss of James Rodgers late in the 2nd quarter was extremely unfortunate, but very unfair as well. Injuries are a part of the game, but it's sad when the play should have never happened, as Rodgers was tackled in the back of the end zone after his apparent touchdown had already happened. After his MRI, the news was that he is lost for the rest of the season. Hopefully a smooth recovery is in order.


- Again, without a healthy James, the other play makers on offense stepped up in his absence. Wheaton was effective as a deep threat, and TE Joe Halahuni got more involved, as well as steady handed Aaron Nichols and Jordan Bishop. This will be crucial throughout the year, with all the potent offenses in the conference.

- With Katz's big game, this will make defenses think twice about loading up the box to stop Jacquizz. His ability to bomb away on opposing secondaries and stretch the field with Wheaton will really benefit the running game. Looks like the Beavers are not the only team in the state of Oregon with a high powered offense.

- The struggles at linebacker and inconsistency in the secondary on defense continue to haunt the Beavers, and could be the difference between a good season and a great season. Arizona QB Nick Foles put up nearly identical numbers to Katz, and scoring runs by Keola Antolin and Nic Grigsby were a result of poor tackling rather than great runs. Stephen Paea needs to make more of a difference up front as well to help out the ailing back seven.

- With James's injury resulting in the end of his season, there is a possibility that OSU will apply for a medical redshirt, giving him eligibility in the 2011 season. How cool would that be to see James and Jacquizz together for one last season? Almost seems scripted considering how they have helped changed the dynamic and mentality of the Oregon State football program over the last four years.

Next up for the Beavers are the Washington Huskies, a 7 p.m. game in Seattle on ESPN. The Beavers have won their last six against the Huskies, and have not lost in Husky Stadium since 2002. The Huskies upset the USC Trojans two weeks ago in Los Angeles, but fell victim to Arizona State this past Saturday at home.

Wednesday, October 6, 2010

Can The Heisman Talk Rest Until November?

There are plenty of Alabama, Oregon, Michigan, Ohio State and Boise State fans out there that are asking for some respect for their alleged "Heisman candidtates". No offense to their respective all-stars, but let's get something straight: it's barely October. Let the Heisman talk die down already. Most teams have yet to play half of their games yet. Like the national rankings, the Heisman Trophy is being watered down by pre-season rankings and expectations, and bandwagon jumpers across the country are overflowing college football fans' brains with unnecessary hype.

Oregon's LaMichael James is a hot topic after his performance against Stanford this past Saturday, churning out 257 yards and three touchdowns against an overachieving Stanford defense. However, a good chunk of those yards came on a relatively meaningless 74 yard dash after the game was already out of reach for the Cardinal. He was held to under 100 yards against a sturdy Arizona State defense, and his other big day came against FCS Portland State. If his knack for the big run continues though (at least a 40-yard gain each game), his name will stay afloat the Heisman talk.

Michigan's Denard Robinson also made a name for himself in the opening two games of the season, thrashing Connecticut and Notre Dame for 197 and 258 yards on the ground, respectively. His effectiveness through the air has been impressive as well, completing nearly 70% of his passes and only throwing one interception. Again the problem remains the competition his big performances have come against. UConn, Notre Dame, UMass, Bowling Green and Indiana are ranked no higher than 68th in run defense nationally. Not exactly an imposing schedule.

Terrelle Pryor, Ohio State's big name quarter back, is getting by on name recognition. Anyone who saw his performance last week against Illinois would think the QB in blue and orange were the better of the two.

Kellen Moore, Mark Ingram, or any other great player on a great team will get a chance to play into a trip to New York. Just not now.

Last year at this time, was Mark Ingram on anyone's radar? Was Ndamokong Suh more than just an All-Big XII defender? Toby Gerhart was barely even a Pac-10 commodity. 2009 was supposed to be the ultimate showdown between Tim Tebow, Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy for college football supremacy, and that just didn't come to fruition. 

Hopefully fans and the all-important voters can keep in mind that there is still two thirds of a season left, and not jump the gun on any of these players. I am all for honoring there early season performances, but not for handing out prestigious awards in October.

Sunday, October 3, 2010

Oregon State vs. Arizona State: Notes and Thoughts

The Oregon State Beavers won their first conference opener since 2003 Saturday evening, defeating the Arizona State Sun Devils 31-28. ASU jumped out to a 7-0 lead early on, but could not quite get enough big plays when they needed them. Jacquizz Rodgers ran for 145 yards and two touchdowns, including a career long 74 yarder. 


- Initially, it looks as if the tough opening slate of games has paid off in the maturation process of Ryan Katz. As well as completing 19 of 29 passes, he found nine different receivers in the absence of play maker James Rodgers. His mobility in the pocket saved some plays, and again he did not throw an interception.


- The coaching staff did a nice job of mixing up the play calling enough in the first half to keep the aggressive ASU defense at bay. There were enough effective short passes, as well as enough deep throws to keep the Sun Devils honest. This helped Jacquizz break free slightly more than the games against Boise State and TCU.

- The defensive line play was fierce. Stephen Paea took out his frustrations from the first three games on the Sun Devil offensive line and quarterback Steven Threet. The supporting cast also did a good job of collapsing the pocket on Threet, forcing him to either make poor decisions down field or hold on to the ball too long and take a sack. Not an easy task to do against a quick paced spread offense.

- While the d-line did a nice job against the pass, it was still suspect against the run. ASU was consistently able to gain 5-6 yards on the ground up the middle, as both of their running backs hit the hole hard and kept their feet moving and pushing the pile forward. 

- Cameron Collins' move to linebacker will prove to be one of the best coaching decisions made during the season. As he gets more comfortable in that role, his ball hawking abilities and knack to fly from sideline to sideline will be the difference maker on defense.

- Vontaze Burfect should not be allowed to play football. It seemed time after time he was throwing small jabs at players and yapping his face off. There were also a few times where he lead with his helmet, using as a weapon, as well as seemingly choking some of the offensive linemen on multiple occasions. His dirty play will catch up to him.

Next up for the Beavers are the No. 9 Arizona Wildcats in Tuscon. Arizona had a bye week this week to rest up for the Beavers. Their previous game was a sloppy affair with the Cal Golden Bears, which they won 10-9 after trailing most of the game. The Wildcats defeated Oregon State last season in Corvallis, but have not beaten the Beavs at home since 1997, Mike Riley's first season as OSU head coach.